New Poll: most Brits oppose the deal or “don’t know”

NEWS: A new opinion poll reveals 73% of British people surveyed oppose the Chagos Islands sovereignty deal or “don’t know.’ Only 27% support it. Why?

YouGov asked 4944 adults about their views on the question: From everything you have seen and heard about the issue, do you support or oppose the government's proposals to give sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius?

A significant 27% of respondents “somewhat oppose” or “strongly oppose” the Government’s Chagos sovereignty deal, the same percentage as those who “somewhat support” or “strongly support” it. Nearly half of those asked (45%) said they “don’t know” – including 59% of 18-24 year olds replying “don’t know.”

By comparison to the poll published on 20 January, polls on other issues such as support for the Government’s NetZero policy, Digital ID cards and Assisted Dying, the “don’t knows” are only 14%, 12% and 9%  respectively.

The lack of support from the British public in support of the deal – and the high “don’t know” percentage – comes after a year and a half of UK-US-Mauritius sovereignty deal negotiations which have been heavily covered in the media.

Yet is it any wonder that such a high number of people “don’t know” on this issue? The uncertainty reflects the lack of meaningful consultation of the voting public by successive Governments including the current one that has greenlit the handover of British overseas territory to Mauritius.

British people, including Chagossians, have not been given a chance to vote on this decision. Debate has been poor outside of Westminster. The political argument for the deal simply has not been made – never mind won - among the public.

Instead it is a government and Foreign Office policy invention, developed for many years, and not put to the full democratic test. It’s no surprise then that even Labour Party supporting respondents in the YouGov poll have one of the highest “don’t know” replies at 46%. It seems the Government’s own political party members weren’t consulted convincingly either.

There is no real change over time in the British public’s view they can’t say either way if they support the deal or not, although the view gets slightly stronger as the years go by. In 2024, 39% told YouGov they “don’t know” if they support the deal or not; a year later in 2025 a higher 50% of respondents said they “didn’t know.”

Perhaps the more the Government talks up the deal, and then is slowed down by legal cases, amendments in the Houses of Commons, President Trump’s changing position on the deal [recently describing it as an act of “GREAT STUPIDITY”], the opposition by the Conservative and Reform parties, legal and political challenges by Chagossian campaigners, a United Nations committee asking the UK Government to stop that deal because it excludes Chagossian people, the more unconvincing the current treaty deal sounds? After 13 U-Turns on other Government policies to date, critics are speculating whether the Government’s Chagos deal will become the 14th one?

A final thought: a question yet to be asked of the British voting public by opinion poll companies: do you support the right of Chagossians to self-determination?

THE CHAGOS FILES TEAM/25 Jan 2026